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Armin Ferdinand GUTOWSKI


Armin Ferdinand GUTOWSKI, economist in the field of Economic Fluctuations; Forecasting; Stabilisation; and Inflation; Domestic Monetary and Fiscal Theory and Institutions; International Economics.


GUTOWSKI, Armin Ferdinand was born in 1930 in Nuremberg, W. Germany.


Diplom-Volkswirt, Dr Rer. Policy, Habilitation University Mainz, 1952, 1957, 1967.


Research Association, Forschungs- inst. für Wirtschaftspolitik, University Mainz, 1953-1966. Deputy Chief Economics, Chief Economics Adviser, Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau, Frankfurt, 1966-1967, 1969-1978. Professor of Economics, Director, Tropeninstitut, University Giessen, 1967-1970.

Professor of Economics, University Frankfurt, 1970-1978. President, Institute, für Wirtschaftsforschung, Hamburg. Professor of Economics, University Hamburg, since 1978.

Editorial Board, Wirtschaft und Wettbewerb, 1973-1979. Co-editor, Hamburger Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsund Gesellschaftspolitik, since 1980.


  • Rockefeller Foundation Fellow, Universities California Berkeley, Princeton, Chicago, 1960-1961; Member, Council Economics Experts Federal Republic Germany (Sachverständigenrat), 1970-1978. Member, Board Advisers, German Economics Ministry, since 1970. Member, Deutsches Forum fur Entwicklungspolitik, 1970-1973.

    Board of Directors, Mont Pelerin Society, 1970-1974. Adviser, Government People’s Republic China, since 1979. Member, Joint Committee Staff Compensation Issues World Bank and International Monetary Fund, 1977-1978, Consultant Group, International Economics and Monetary Affairs (Group of Thirty), 1978-, Kronberger Kreis, since 1981, Comité de Patronage, Institute, Institution Economics de Paris, since 1982, Academie Council, J. Economics Affairs, London, since 1983, United Nations Committee Development Planning, since 1984, Bundesverdienstkreuz 1.

    Klasse, W. Germany, 1979.


My first book (1960) was on a very practical matter, namely, how public institutions should procure goods which have not yet been developed or which are of a sophisticated technical nature. I recommended a two-stage-competitive procurement procedure, the first — based on a functional specification — for the procurement of the blueprints including patents and other property rights, the second — based on a constructional specification — for the purchase of the good itself. My second and perhaps main contribution was a new approach to the theory of supply in my unpublished Habilitation thesis (1967), which resulted in several published articles: I derived the necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of market power from a dynamic theory of market entry.

I also contested the prevailing theory of the entrypreventing price, showing that the expected price after entry was decisive. The consequences for economic policy of my theoretical works on workable competition were reflected in the chapter on policies regarding restrictions of competition in the German Council of Economic Experts’ report 1971-1972. While I was on that council, the emphasis of my work shifted to monetary policy, international monetary systems and, in general, to cyclical and medium-term stabilisation policies. In particular, I contributed to the development of a production-potentialoriented concept of domestic monetary policy which, by and large, was subsequently applied by the German Central Bank (Council’s report 1974-1975).

I did some work on the long-term economic consequences of the oil-price shock and proposed a possible solution to the problems arising from it. I also dealt with the question of how various international monetary systems compare with pure systems of fixed and flexible exchange rates. Finally, in the last few years, I have devoted a great deal of my research work to the determinants of the capacity of developing countries to service external debts.