Background
CARLSON, John Allyn was born in 1933 in Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America.
(In this reexamination of Canada's balance of payments exp...)
In this reexamination of Canada's balance of payments experience under the gold standard, the authors develop and empirically test a new portfolio approach to the mechanism of balance of payments adjustment. This adjustment mechanism responded to massive inflows of foreign capital during a critical period of Canada's economic growth in the early years of this century. The authors show that the existence of international mobility of capital requires a fundamental revision of the price-specie-flow theory that has traditionally been used to explain adjustment when the balance of payments was more nearly dominated by the balance of trade. The approach Professors Dick and Floyd take not only answers the critics of Jacob Viner, who first explored the Canadian case after 1900, but also offers a new perspective on how the gold standard in general actually worked. The authors apply standard elementary economic principles to this working of the balance of payments under the gold standard, making this book useful reading for those studying intermediate and upper level economics, especially in the field of international finance.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0521404088/?tag=2022091-20
(This paper investigates the role of imperfect knowledge r...)
This paper investigates the role of imperfect knowledge regarding the structure of the economy on the formation of expectations, macroeconomic dynamics, and the efficient formulation of monetary policy. Economic agents rely on an adaptive learning technology to form expectations and continuously update their beliefs regarding the dynamic structure of the economy based on incoming data. The process of perpetual learning introduces an additional layer of dynamic interactions between monetary policy and economic outcomes. We find that policies that would be efficient under rational expectations can perform poorly when knowledge is imperfect. In particular, policies that fail to maintain tight control over inflation are prone to episodes in which the public's expectations of inflation becomes uncoupled from the policy objective and stagflation results, in a pattern similar to that experienced in the United States during the 1970s. More generally, we show that in the presence of imperfect knowledge, policy should respond more aggressively to inflation than under perfect knowledge.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1288715722/?tag=2022091-20
(New Keynesian models with sticky prices and rational expe...)
New Keynesian models with sticky prices and rational expectations have a difficult time explaining why reducing inflation usually requires a recession. An explanation for the costliness of reducing inflation is that inflation expectations are less than perfectly rational. To explore this possibility, I estimate the degree of nonrationality implicit in two survey measures of inflation expectations. I find that the surveys reflect an intermediate degree of rationality: Expectations are nether perfectly rational nor as unsophisticated as simple autoregressive models would suggest. I also find that a structural New Keynesian model with expectations formation based on the survey results is able to match closely the empirical costs of reducing inflation.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1288719264/?tag=2022091-20
(This review empirically analyzes the expectations hypothe...)
This review empirically analyzes the expectations hypothesis (EH) in inflation-indexed (or real) bonds and in nominal bonds in the United States and in the United Kingdom. We strongly reject the EH in inflation-indexed bonds, and also confirm and update the existing evidence rejecting the EH in nominal bonds. This rejection implies that the risk premium on both real and nominal bonds varies predictably over time. We also find strong evidence that the spread between the nominal and the real bond risk premium, or the breakeven inflation risk premium, also varies over time. We argue that the time variation in real bond risk premia most likely reflects both a changing real interest rate risk premium and a changing liquidity risk premium, and that the variability in the nominal bond risk premia reflects a changing inflation risk premium. We estimate significant time series variability in the magnitude and sign of bond risk premia.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00F56FCSO/?tag=2022091-20
CARLSON, John Allyn was born in 1933 in Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America.
Bachelor of Science (Mathematics) Denison University, 1955. Doctor of Philosophy Johns Hopkins University, 1961.
Visiting Assistant Professor, Cornell University, 1961-1962. Guest Scholar, Brookings Institute, Institution, 1967-1968. Research Fellow Economics Statistics, University Manchester, 1971-1972.
Honorary Research Fellow, University College London,
1980.
Professor of Economics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, United States of America, since 1973.
(In this reexamination of Canada's balance of payments exp...)
(This paper investigates the role of imperfect knowledge r...)
(This review empirically analyzes the expectations hypothe...)
(New Keynesian models with sticky prices and rational expe...)
(Book by Carlson, John A)
An early interest in economic adjustment processes began with experiments in which patterns of expectations played critical roles in changes in market prices and aggregate output (Nos. 1, 2 above). As inflation became a widespread phenomenon, series of inflation expectations were developed from survey data, with careful attention to information available to those surveyed and with concern about the plausibility of assumptions utilised in creating the expectations series (Nos. 5, 6, 7). Relationships between inflation expectations and interest rates have also been studied (Number.
8). The dispersion
exhibited by different people’s price expectations led to studies of the dispersion of actual prices and then to formulations of models of price dispersion, with emphasis on testable implications (Number. 10). Continuing interests in what may or may not be inferred from available information show up in a number of ways. Lags attributable to production time have been estimated for different industries from accounting data (Number.
3). Seemingly paradoxical parameter estimates in inventory investment models have been examined critically (Number. 4). And a methodological piece warns of inappropriate inferences when constructed data may automatically support the hypothesis under investigation (Number.