Background
Keeney, Ralph Lyons was born on January 29, 1944 in Lewistown, Montana, United States. Son of Alonzo Stevens and Anna Murel (Lyons) Keeney.
( The standard way of thinking about decisions is backwa...)
The standard way of thinking about decisions is backwards, says Ralph Keeney: people focus first on identifying alternatives rather than on articulating values. A problem arises and people react, placing the emphasis on mechanics and fixed choices instead of on the objectives that give decisionmaking its meaning. In this book, Keeney shows how recognizing and articulating fundamental values can lead to the identification of decision opportunities and the creation of better alternatives. The intent is to be proactive and to select more attractive decisions to ponder before attempting any solutions. Keeney describes specific procedures for articulating values by identifying and structuring objectives qualitatively, and he shows how to apply these procedures in various cases. He then explains how to quantify objectives using simple models of values. Such value analysis, Keeney demonstrates, can yield a full range of alternatives, thus converting decision problems into opportunities. This approach can be used to uncover hidden objectives, to direct the collection of information, to improve communication, to facilitate collective decisionmaking, and to guide strategic thinking. To illustrate these uses, Keeney shows how value-focused thinking works in many business contexts, such as designing an integrated circuit tester and managing a multibillion-dollar utility company; in government contexts, such as planning future NASA space missions and deciding how to transport nuclear waste to storage sites; and in personal contexts, such as choosing career moves and making wise health and safety decisions. An incisive, applicable contribution to the art and science of decisionmaking, Value-Focused Thinking will be extremely useful to anyone from consultants and managers to systems analysts and students.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/067493198X/?tag=2022091-20
(Many of the complex problems faced by decision makers inv...)
Many of the complex problems faced by decision makers involve multiple conflicting objectives. This book describes how a confused decision maker, who wishes to make a reasonable and responsible choice among alternatives, can systematically probe his true feelings in order to make those critically important, vexing trade-offs between incommensurable objectives. The theory is illustrated by many real concrete examples taken from a host of disciplinary settings. The standard approach in decision theory or decision analysis specifies a simplified single objective like monetary return to maximise. By generalising from the single objective case to the multiple objective case, this book considerably widens the range of applicability of decision analysis.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0521438837/?tag=2022091-20
(Where should I live? Is it time to switch careers? What ...)
Where should I live? Is it time to switch careers? What is the best course of action for me? Decisions shape our experiences, from choosing which job offer to accept, to buying the right car, to selecting a good accountant. How do we know which choice is the smart one? How can we be consistent and confident in our decisions? In this book from the three leading authorities on decision-making, readers learn how to approach all types of decisions with a simple set of skills developed by professors from Harvard, MIT, and the University of Southern California. Combining solid research with common sense and practical experience, this user-friendly guide shows readers how to assess deep-seated objectives, create a comprehensive set of alternatives, determine likely consequences, make tradeoffs, and grapple with uncertainty. Not only will readers learn how to make decisions, they will learn how to make the smartest decisions. For anyone caught at a confusing crossroad–whether you’re choosing between mutual funds or deciding where to retire–the Smart Choices program will improve your decision-making abilities immediately, and make your life more rewarding and fulfilling.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0767908864/?tag=2022091-20
(Smart Choices : A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisi...)
Smart Choices : A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions by John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney and Howard Raiffa. Harvard Business School Press,1999 (
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B001L0RJ7A/?tag=2022091-20
Keeney, Ralph Lyons was born on January 29, 1944 in Lewistown, Montana, United States. Son of Alonzo Stevens and Anna Murel (Lyons) Keeney.
Bachelor of Science, University of California at Los Angeles, 1966. Master of Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1967. Degree in electrical engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1968.
Doctor of Philosophy in Operations Research, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1969.
Engineer Bell Telephone Laboratories, Holmdel, New Jersey, 1966-1969. Assistant professor civil engineering, staff member Operations Research Center Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, 1969-1972, associate professor management and operations research, 1972-1974. Research scholar International Institute Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 1974-1976.
Head decision analysis Woodward-Cycle Consultant, San Francisco, 1976-1983, vice president, 1980-1983. Professor management and engineering University Southern California, 1983—2002. Research professor Fuqua School Business, Duke University, since 2002.
Private consultant, since 1969.
(Where should I live? Is it time to switch careers? What ...)
( The standard way of thinking about decisions is backwa...)
(Many of the complex problems faced by decision makers inv...)
(Smart Choices : A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisi...)
Structuring models of value-judgements for complex situations. Specifically, von NeumannMorgenstern utility functions are derived from various assumptions. Many applications of these utility functions have been illustrated and used in practical decision situations.
Contributions to structuring preferences for groups.
Member National Academy of Engineering, Institute Operations Research & Management Science, Society Risk Analysis.
Married Janet L. Beach, January 21, 1984. 1 child, Gregory.